Eskom tariff increases, and what they do to solar payback
Every NERSA-approved increase, what it does to a typical household bill, and why a rising tariff shortens the time solar takes to pay for itself. Figures are sourced to NERSA decisions and dated.
What NERSA has actually approved
Eskom-direct customers and municipal customers get different increases on different dates. Municipal customers usually see theirs three months later, on 1 July.
| Financial year | Eskom-direct | Municipal | Effective | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 12.74% | 11.32% | 1 April 2025municipal: 1 July 2025 | NERSA decision |
| 2026/27 | 8.76% | 9.01% | 1 April 2026municipal: 1 July 2026 | NERSA decision |
2027/28: not yet decided
NERSA's MYPD6 revenue redetermination of 7 February 2026 sets an 8.83% overall Eskom price path for 2027/28. That is not the same thing as an approved retail increase: NERSA has not yet issued the customer-category decision that splits it between Eskom-direct and municipal customers.
We are not publishing a percentage for 2027/28 until that decision is issued. Plenty of coverage already quotes the overall price path as if it were your increase — it isn't, and the two numbers are usually different.
Read the NERSA letterWhat the approved increases do to a R2,000 bill
Increases compound. A single year's percentage looks survivable; the effect of consecutive years is what actually reshapes a household budget. This applies the approved Eskom-direct increases to a bill that started at R2,000 a month.
Starting bill
R2,000
Before the 2025/26 increase
After 2025/26
R2,255
+12.74% applied
After 2026/27
R2,452
+8.76% applied
That is an increase of R452 a month, or roughly R5,424 a year, on a bill that started at R2,000 — from two increases alone. This is a straight application of the approved percentages to an illustrative starting bill; your own increase depends on your tariff, your municipality and your consumption.
A rising tariff shortens solar payback
Solar payback is the system cost divided by what it saves you each year. The saving is not fixed: it is the value of the electricity you no longer buy. Every time the tariff rises, that avoided electricity is worth more, so the same system pays back faster than the original quote assumed.
This is why payback estimates that assume a flat tariff are misleading in South Africa. They quietly understate the return by ignoring the one thing that has been consistently true for years.
The reverse is also worth saying plainly: a tariff increase does not make solar cheaper. It makes the alternative more expensive. The system still costs what it costs, and it still needs to suit your roof, your usage and your budget.
How solar payback actually worksPercentages are the average approved increases from the linked NERSA decisions and apply differently across tariff structures and municipalities; your own bill may move by more or less. Municipal customers are billed by their municipality, which applies its own approved increase from 1 July. Last checked against source documents on 3 September 2026.
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Figures, charts and calculator outputs on this page may be reproduced, in whole or in part, with clear attribution and a link to https://www.solarguide.co.za/eskom-tariff-increases/. Last reviewed 3 September 2026. If you need a specific cut of the underlying assumptions for a story, email [email protected].
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